How the projection works

Each year the withdrawal comes out first, then the remaining balance grows at your return assumption, then next year's withdrawal is bumped by inflation. On the defaults ($1M, $40,000 rising 2% a year, 5% returns) the money lasts about 44 years. That initial 4% withdrawal rate is not a coincidence: it is the famous rule-of-thumb from the Trinity study era, and this page lets you see what it actually does to a balance rather than take it on faith.

The one thing a smooth line hides

Real returns arrive in a jagged order, and the order matters enormously. Two retirees earning the same average return can end up in wildly different places if one hits a bear market in the first five years of withdrawals while the other hits it late. This is sequence-of-returns risk, and a deterministic projection like this one cannot show it. Treat the chart as the center of a range: a bad early decade can shave a third off the lifespan shown, and a good one can extend it past the axis.

Levers, ranked by strength

The withdrawal rate dominates everything. Dropping from $40,000 to $35,000 on a $1M balance adds more years than a full point of extra return, and it is the only lever you control directly. Inflation assumptions matter more the longer the horizon: at 3% instead of 2%, the year-20 withdrawal is about $70,000 instead of $58,000, purchasing the same groceries.

Educational estimates, not retirement advice. Taxes, fees, and variable returns will change these numbers.